02/06/2026 - Long-Term Holder Distribution Triggers Twelve Percent Bitcoin Drawdown, Ethereum Correlation and YTD Divergence

02/06/2026 - Long-Term Holder Distribution Triggers Twelve Percent Bitcoin Drawdown, Ethereum Correlation and YTD Divergence

Episode description

This episode examines the on-chain mechanics behind last week’s bitcoin selloff, focusing on the behavioral classification framework Chainalysis uses to identify long-term holder cohorts and the supply-side dynamics that triggered a twelve percent seven-day decline. We walk through how the one hundred fifty-five day holding threshold separates conviction positions from active flow, the order book absorption process that enabled Sunday’s recovery to sixty thousand eight hundred dollars, and the synchronized movement between bitcoin and ethereum despite a five-fold difference in year-to-date performance. Operators gain insight into cohort rotation dynamics, market microstructure responses to dormant supply activation, and the role of on-chain metrics in anticipating supply regime shifts before they fully manifest in spot price action.

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