05/03/2026 - Risk Adjusted DeFi Yields, Collateral Market Segmentation, Technical Expected Loss Frameworks

05/03/2026 - Risk Adjusted DeFi Yields, Collateral Market Segmentation, Technical Expected Loss Frameworks

Episode description

This episode examines how Tom Dunleavy’s risk disaggregation framework calculates fair DeFi lending yields at twelve point five percent by layering technical expected loss, recovery rates, and collateral segmentation onto base rates. We break down how curators operationalize prime versus high yield classifications, how Morpho isolates pool level risk for transparent pricing, and why point subsidization distorts observed returns relative to organic lending activity. The briefing covers rising annualized default rates, minimal recovery profiles from exploits, and emerging risk vectors from rehypothecation and exotic composability that require updated underwriting methods.

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